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Abstract Near‐equatorial measurements of energetic electron fluxes, in combination with numerical simulation, are widely used for monitoring of the radiation belt dynamics. However, the long orbital periods of near‐equatorial spacecraft constrain the cadence of observations to once per several hours or greater, that is, much longer than the mesoscale injections and rapid local acceleration and losses of energetic electrons of interest. An alternative approach for radiation belt monitoring is to use measurements of low‐altitude spacecraft, which cover, once per hour or faster, the latitudinal range of the entire radiation belt within a few minutes. Such an approach requires, however, a procedure for mapping the flux from low equatorial pitch angles (near the loss cone) as measured at low altitude, to high equatorial pitch angles (far from the loss cone), as necessitated by equatorial flux models. Here we do this using the high energy resolution ELFIN measurements of energetic electrons. Combining those with GPS measurements we develop a model for the electron anisotropy coefficient, , that describes electron flux dependence on equatorial pitch‐angle, , . We then validate this model by comparing its equatorial predictions from ELFIN with in‐situ near‐equatorial measurements from Arase (ERG) in the outer radiation belt. 

Abstract Previously, Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014,https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825) created estimates for a “perfect” interplanetary coronal mass ejection and performed simple calculations for the response of geospace, including. In this study, these estimates are used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic‐ring current‐ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more physically accurate estimates of the geospace response to such an event. The sudden impulse phase is examined and compared to the estimations of Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014,https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825). The physics‐based simulation yields similar estimates for Dst rise, magnetopause compression, and equatorialvalues as the previous study. However, results diverge away from the equator.values in excess of 30 nT/s are found as low asmagnetic latitude. Under southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions, magnetopause erosion combines with strong region one Birkeland currents to intensify theresponse. Values obtained here surpass those found in historically recorded events and set the upper threshold of extreme geomagnetically induced current activity at Earth. 

Abstract We have developed a new procedure for combining lists of substorm onset times from multiple sources. We apply this procedure to observational data and to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model output from 1–31 January 2005. We show that this procedure is capable of rejecting false positive identifications and filling data gaps that appear in individual lists. The resulting combined onset lists produce a waiting time distribution that is comparable to previously published results, and superposed epoch analyses of the solar wind driving conditions and magnetospheric response during the resulting onset times are also comparable to previous results. Comparison of the substorm onset list from the MHD model to that obtained from observational data reveals that the MHD model reproduces many of the characteristic features of the observed substorms, in terms of solar wind driving, magnetospheric response, and waiting time distribution. Heidke skill scores show that the MHD model has statistically significant skill in predicting substorm onset times. 

The space physics community continues to grow and become both more interdisciplinary and more intertwined with commercial and government operations. This has created a need for a framework to easily identify what projects can be used for specific applications and how close the tool is to routine autonomous or on-demand implementation and operation. We propose the Application Usability Level (AUL) framework and publicizing AULs to help the community quantify the progress of successful applications, metrics, and validation efforts. This framework will also aid the scientific community by supplying the type of information needed to build off of previously published work and publicizing the applications and requirements needed by the user communities. In this paper, we define the AUL framework, outline the milestones required for progression to higher AULs, and provide example projects utilizing the AUL framework. This work has been completed as part of the activities of the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress working group which is part of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment.